The short answer is slim to none (with a chance of no way José) and you probably didn’t need a spoiler alert for that one. Seeing that I don’t get paid to give short answers, here goes: A crowd-pleasing superhero film will get a x3 multiplier at best in a non-December month. If Shazam!’s $160 million (rounded) worldwide debut is anything to go by, we should not be expecting anything above $480 million.
I’ve seen the movie and I liked it. My kids liked it. I think a lot of kids will get to see this film and like it. What if this movie isn’t just a crowd-pleaser? What if it’s a game-changer? What if it has some serious legs and shows for as long as Wonder Woman did a few years ago?
Remember that the other Captain Marvel opened to nearly half a billion and she also had hugely simultaneous worldwide release (read early China release). I used a worst-case-scenario to project that the lower limit for that film would be $913 million. You know, pretending as if it would have the bad performance of Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice (BvS) so it was easy for me to call the eventual billion dollars in that case.
This time around, I’m going to use the opposite of BvS. I’m going to compare Shazam!’s performance with that of Wonder Woman. Wonder Woman legged out to a domestic multiplier of x4. If Shazam! does the same, it will end up with nearly $220 million. Internationally, Shazam! is tracking a little more closely with Wonder Woman’s performance than in the domestic market. It’s possible for Shazam! to make as much as much as $400 million. That would be a worldwide total of $620 million, right?
You know what? Scratch Wonder Woman. Let’s aim even higher and add another $55 million for fun. Let’s pretend that it will have the x5 multiplier that Aquaman had, even if though did so in December where many weekdays operate like weekends and people spread their viewing more evenly.
This way, we end up with a domestic cume of $275 million. Groo-veey! Internationally, Aquaman opened with about $90 million (again…rounded) in week one in China alone (smart early release…don’t ask). It added about $80 million from other territories in week two.
This means we can assume that Aquaman opened with about $170 million and went with a somewhat nearly x5 multiplier to end up at slightly over $800 million. Let’s face it, I can’t use the official week one opening of about $90 million, because there’s just no way Shazam! has an international multiplier of x9, not with the kind of simultaneous release it had.
So, please, keep playing this game with me.
In this dream world we’ve created, Shazam! legs out to a whopping $500 million internationally. Let’s even say $600 million (it’s our dream ain’t it?). This will give us a total of $875 million. That’s my upper limit. I really don’t see it doing anywhere near this much. Let’s not forget that we have completely pretended that Disney isn’t about to release the biggest movie in the history of movies in a few weeks.
Artist who loves spreadsheets.